Appendix A: Broad methodology for Strategic Housing Allocation

Closeddate_range16 Oct, 2019, 9:30am - 11 Dec, 2019, 5:00pm

This appendix sets out consideration of the guidelines for allocating housing land set out in paragraph 6.139 of the SPPS and supports SGS3 Strategic Allocation of Housing to Settlements and SGS5 Management of Housing Supply.  In addition, it highlights the amount of uncommitted and undeveloped zoned land from extant area plans and further development potential within the urban fringe of towns.

Housing Growth Indicators (HGIs) 

The RDS expresses regional housing needs as Housing Growth Indicators (HGIs), which are produced as a guide for the preparation of Local Development Plans.  The HGI is an estimate of the new dwelling requirement for the Council area over most of the Plan period.  The figures are based on current population/household formation trends making the assumption that these trends will continue in the future.  They are therefore guidance, rather than a cap on housing development in the area or a target to be achieved.  In addition to the household projections, the HGIs also use data on vacant housing stock, second homes and net conversions/closures/demolitions (net stock loss) to produce the final figure.

In April 2016, the Department for Infrastructure published a revised HGI figure of 5,400 dwellings for Mid and East Antrim Borough for the period 2012-2025, using 2012-based household projections.  Projecting the figure of 5,400 on a pro rata basis to 2030 for the period 2012-2030 gives a figure of 7,477.  This translates to 6,230 for the plan period 2015-2030.

Allocation of housing to settlement tiers and countryside 

Taking account of the POP and in line with our proposed Spatial Growth Strategy, the strategic housing allocation sets out to significantly increase the 2011 Census status quo in terms of the proportion of households in main towns, and to marginally increase the percentage in small towns, villages and small settlements.  This is in line with the RDS in that most housing growth is directed to the main towns of Ballymena, Larne and Carrickfergus whilst ensuring that the needs of the rural community are met in a sustainable manner.  Column two of Table A1 and Figure A1 sets out the percentage of the HGI to be allocated to the various tiers of the settlement hierarchy and the countryside. Column three of Table A1 highlights the difference between the proportion of households in a tier at the time of the 2011 Census and the allocation now aimed for.

Table A1 Housing Allocation to Settlement Tiers and Countryside

Tier

Allocation to Tier (% of HGI)

Difference to 2011 Census status quo

Allocation to Tier (2012-2030 Figure)

Main Towns

62%

3.5% point increase 

4,636

Small Towns

15%

1% point increase

1,122

Villages

8.5%

1% point increase

636

Small Settlements

2.5%

0.7% point increase

187

Countryside

12%

6.2% decrease 

897

Total

100%

 

7,477

Note: Figures in column four are rounded therefore may not add exactly
Figure A1 Percentage of Housing Allocation to Settlement Tiers and Countryside

Allocation of housing between settlements in each tier 

The starting point for allocating housing between the settlements in each tier was to calculate their share of the allocation to the tier based on their share of households in 2011, which gave a preliminary housing allocation to each settlement.  Column four of Table A2 Housing Allocation between Settlements in each Tier shows the initial allocation to each settlement after working through this exercise.

Table A2 Housing Allocation between Settlements in each Tier

Settlement

Households 2011 Census

% per household % in 2011
(Main towns +3.5% on status quo, small towns +1%, villages +1%, small settlements +0.7%, countryside -6.2%

Adjusted HGI allocation figure to individual settlements following application of Housing Evaluation Framework

%

HGI allocation (HGI 2012-2030: 7,477)

Main Towns

 

Ballymena

12,105

23.6%

1,765

1,791

Carrickfergus 

11,536

22.5%

1,682

1,667

Larne

8,152

15.9%

1,189

1,178

Main Town total

31,793

62%

4,636

4,636

Small Towns

 

Greenisland 

2,324

4.59%

343

357

Whitehead

1,633

3.22%

241

222

Ahoghill

1,320

2.6%

194

192

Broughshane

1,235

2.44%

182

176

Cullybackey

1,088

2.15%

161

175

Small Towns total

7,600

15%

1,122

1,122

Villages 

 

Kells/Connor

808

1.7%

127

135

Carnlough

563

1.18%

88

93

Ballycarry

536

1.12%

84

85

Portglenone

498

1.04%

78

81

Ballystrudder

389

0.82%

61

62

Ballygalley

333

0.7%

52

45

Glynn

267

0.56%

42

40

Glenarm

242

0.51%

38

35

Cargan

223

0.47%

35

32

Martinstown

108

0.23%

17

16

Clough

90

0.19%

14

12

Villages total

4,057

8.5%

636

636

Small Settlements

 

Small settlements total

1,001

2.5%

187

187

Settlement total

44,451

88%

6,580

6,580

Countryside total

9,863

12%

897

897

Mid and East Antrim Total

54,314

 

7,477

7,477

Note: Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly

RDS Housing Evaluation Framework 

The next stage in the housing allocation process involved applying the RDS Housing Evaluation Framework (HEF).  The RDS states that, “the broad evaluation framework (set out in Table 3.2 RDS) is to be used to assist judgements on the allocation of housing growth”.

The six tests within the HEF are based on the capacity of a settlement to accommodate additional housing growth, with the overall aim of ensuring that the concept of sustainable development is built into the housing allocation process.  The six HEF tests have been applied to the top three tiers of the settlement hierarchy using a broad scoring system and a series of indicators tailored for the different tiers (see Technical Supplement 3 Housing).  The application of the HEF tests resulted in amended housing allocation figures to settlements as set out in Figure A2 Housing Allocation figures following application of HEF and column five of Table A2.

Figure A2 Housing Allocation figures following application of HEF

Housing unit completions 

The above notional allocation to various settlements was then refined to take account of the number of housing units that have been completed/already constructed in each settlement from between April 2012 and March 2018 (Figure A3: Housing unit completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2012-2018).

Figure A3 Housing unit completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2012-2018

Note: New small settlements have all be given a figure of 0 as their boundaries are yet to be determined and they are not included in the current settlement housing monitor. Their completions are accounted for in the countryside figure.

Since April 2012, 2,324 housing units have been completed within settlements and 539 in the open countryside.  This is a total of 2,863 housing unit completions within the Borough and equates to an average of 477 per year.  Taking away the number of housing units completed from the HGI figure, adjusted by the HEF, for the period 2012-2030 leaves a figure of 4,614 for the Borough (see column two of Table A3 Housing Allocation 2018-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements April 2018 for breakdown of individual settlements).

The methodology in this appendix has been used as the basis for the Strategic Housing Allocation figure set out in proposal SGS3.

Existing housing commitments 

The SPPS process for allocating housing land requires an allowance for existing housing commitments (para 6.139 third bullet refers).  Consideration of dwellings already constructed or completed has been discussed above and along with consideration of HGIs and the RDS housing evaluation framework help support SGS3 Strategic Housing Allocation.  The remaining types of commitments are listed as approvals not yet commenced and residential development proposals likely to be approved.  This list would appear to exclude sites that have commenced but have not been completed.  Therefore, for the purposes of commitments these are considered to be dwelling units with live planning permission, some of which may be under construction or approved but where construction has not yet commenced.

The latest Housing Monitor indicated that at April 2018, it was estimated that current live planning permissions within settlements (outline, reserved matters and full) could provide approximately 4,000 dwelling units.  It is recognised that these may not all be built and as progress is made through the LDP process some may lapse and other planning permissions will be forthcoming.  This will be reviewed at LPP stage. 

Using the most up to date Housing Monitor it indicates that, in some settlements the existing live planning permission commitments are already greater than their remaining allocation figure for 2018-2030 e.g. in the towns of Ballymena, Greenisland (by the most 71), Broughshane and Cullybackey and in the village of Ballycarry, Kells/Connor, Clough and Martinstown.  Carrickfergus, Larne, Ahoghill, Portglenone, Ballystrudder, Cargan are quite close to meeting their allocation figure through existing live permission being just 17, 34 and 21, 3, 6, 6 units below respectively.  The villages of Ballygalley, Carnlough, Glenarm and Glynn would require around 30-40 more units to meet their allocation.  In Whitehead existing live approvals fall well short of the notional housing allocation figure (see Table A3 Housing Allocation 2018-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements April 2018). 

Table A3 Housing Allocation 2018-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2018

Settlement

Housing Allocation 2018-2030 after HEF adjustment
(2012-2030 HGI minus Completions 2012-2018)

Live residential planning permissions
(units)

Difference in notional allocation figure and live planning permissions
(units)

Main Towns

Ballymena

991

996 

Exceeds allocation by 5

Carrickfergus 

1,239

1,222 

17 short of allocation

Larne

879

845 

34 short of allocation

Main Town total

3,109

3,063

46 short of allocation

Small Towns

Greenisland 

96

167 

Exceeds allocation by 71

Whitehead

218

11 

207 short of allocation

Ahoghill

94

73 

21 short of allocation

Broughshane

67

69 

Exceeds allocation by 2

Cullybackey

110

113 

Exceeds allocation by 3

Small Towns total

584

433

151 short of allocation

Villages 

Kells/Connor

72

89 

Exceeds allocation by 17

Carnlough

83

56 

27 short of allocation

Ballycarry

58

173 

Exceeds allocation by 115

Portglenone

45

42 

3 short of allocation

Ballystrudder

40

34 

6 short of allocation

Ballygalley

38

37 short of allocation

Glynn

39

39 short of allocation

Glenarm

34

31 short of allocation

Cargan

16

10 short of allocation

Martinstown

-16

Exceeds allocation by 25

Clough

12

16 

Exceeds allocation by 4

Villages total

421

429

 

Small Settlements

Grange Corner

Combined figure below

 

Carnalbanagh

Carncastle

24 

Crosshill

Glenoe

Magheramorne

Mounthill

Mullaghboy

11 

Raloo

Newtowncrommelin

Settlement limits not yet defined

Moorfields

Buckna

Glarryford

Woodgreen

Milltown

Slaght

Craigywarren

Small settlements total

142

72

 

Settlement total

4,256

3,997

 

Countryside total

358

Unknown

 

Mid and East Antrim Total

4,614

 

 

Note: The figure of 72 live approvals in small settlements total includes 29 dwellings within the settlements to be de-designated (they are not listed in this table).

Urban capacity Study 

The SPPS states that councils should assess the potential for future housing growth within the urban footprint and the capacity for different types and densities of housing.  An initial urban capacity study, based on the 2016-2017 housing monitor, and carried out within the main and small towns within the Borough, estimates that urban capacity sites over 0.2 hectares, could provide approximately 4,087 additional housing units.  2,150 of these units are on sites outside existing zoned housing land, with the majority of this capacity in Ballymena and Larne (see Technical Supplement 3 Housing).  Most recent figures from the 2017-2018 housing monitor reveal that 571 of the 4,087 unit potential from urban capacity sites have now become live residential planning permissions.  This is reflected in Figures A4 and A5.

Windfall housing 

The SPPS highlights that windfall potential arising from previously developed land within the urban footprint is central to the assessment of future housing land requirement and is a key element of the urban capacity study.  In line with the objectives of the RDS it is necessary to make full allowance for this when deciding the number of sites to identify for development in the plan to prevent excessive allocation of housing land.  A current initial estimate of the potential housing returns from previously developed land within the urban footprint which might become available for housing during the lifespan of the LDP indicates approximately 580 additional housing units.

Housing Needs Assessment / Housing Market Analysis 

The SPPS states that the Housing Needs Assessment/Housing Market Analysis provides an evidence base that must be taken into consideration in the allocation of land required to facilitate the right mix of housing tenures.  It is difficult to predict affordable housing needs over the length of the plan as needs can and do fluctuate over time in response to changing economic and market trends.  However, the latest HNA for the Borough (December 2018) highlights that total new build social rented housing need for the period 2018-2030 is currently 1,331 units.  The document sets out the need in individual settlements and in two wider areas, Glenravel and Islandmagee.  At present 406 units are identified on the Social Housing Schemes Programme for the Borough.  These units may assist in meeting the need but the programme is tentative and fluid.

Social rented housing need varies within settlements, with Carrickfergus having the highest need followed by Ballymena.  Examining this need alongside the notional housing allocation figure for each settlement, uncovers a number of settlements (Ballymena, Greenisland, Broughshane and Cullybackey) where completions and live planning permissions would already meet the allocation figure but these will not meet the social rented housing need (Figures A4 and A5).  In Carrickfergus and Ahoghill, completions and live planning permissions fall just below the notional housing allocation figure, but the social rented housing need would push the figure beyond this.  In Whitehead the use of all current urban capacity sites would meet the predicted social rented housing need, but fall short of meeting the notional housing allocation figure.

Undeveloped Zoned Housing sites from current extant area plans 

Approximately 132 hectares of undeveloped zoned housing lands (without live planning permissions) exist within the Borough’s main towns, and this can be divided into sites located within the urban footprint (included in urban capacity unit estimates) and those within the urban fringe.  It is currently estimated that these lands could accommodate approximately 3,427 housing units.  Within small towns, undeveloped zoned housing land or land identified as suitable for housing in extant area plans could accommodate approximately 495 housing units.  An additional 58 units could be accommodated on land identified as suitable for housing within two villages.

Additional potential from Urban Fringe (excluding undeveloped zoned housing land) 

In addition to the sources of capacity for new housing units listed above it is also estimated that currently the potential from the urban fringe (outside the urban footprint but within existing settlement limits) within main and small towns could yield 3,190 units.  In villages and small settlements where no urban footprint has been identified, a current estimate of capacity from remaining whiteland within the existing settlement limits indicates potential for 1,744 dwelling units.

Figure A4 Notional Housing Allocation 2018-2030 in relation to Existing Approvals/Potential Urban Capacity and Windfall sites in Main Towns and potential in Urban fringe (Whiteland and Undeveloped and Uncommitted extant Zoned housing sites) and current projected Social Rented Need until 2030

Figure A5 Notional Housing Allocation 2018-2030 in relation to Existing Approvals/Potential Urban Capacity and Windfall sites in Small Towns and potential in Urban fringe (Whiteland and Undeveloped and Uncommitted extant Zoned housing sites) and current projected Social Rented Need until 2030 

Figure A6 Notional Housing allocation 2018-2030 in relation to Existing Approvals/remaining potential within settlement limits in Villages and current projected Social Rented Need until 2030

Note: Social rented need of 24 in Glenravel, this includes Cargan, Martinstown and Newtowncrommelin and social rented need of 15 in Islandmagee, this includes Ballystrudder and Mullaghboy

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